Reseach
Working Papers
Lucky investors trade more : evidence from a large and salient exogenous price shock
Joint work with Fernando Chague and Bruno Giovannetti
Runner-up FGC-prize for best Asset Pricing paper at the 2024 Brazilian Finance Society Meeting
Presented: 2024 Brazilian Finance Society Meeting
This paper examines the impact of luck on retail investors’ trading activity. We document an increase in trading activity and a worsening in the performance of lucky investors. We considered lucky investors who sold stock before an unexpected environmental disaster that caused a significant devaluation of this stock. After the event, lucky investors present 11% of portfolio turnover, 46% of numbers of trade, and 35% of the number of days with trade higher than similar investors. Also, the portfolio return risk-unadjusted is 6% and adjusted is 4% lower for lucky investors. Placebo tests indicate that our results are due to this specific stock by investors that sold this stock, and no effect is found using past outcomes.
Joint work with Fernando Chague and Jéfferson A. Colombo
- Best paper award in Finance, Brazilian Econometric Society Meeting, 2024
- Presented: Brazilian Econometric Society Metting (2024), PPGE-UFRS (2024)
How have retail equity investors responded to the surge in cryptocurrencies? Analyzing detailed data on all Brazilian investors from 2012 to 2018, we find that retail equity trading decreases during periods when cryptocurrencies are attention-grabbing. The economic impact ranges from 5.1% to 7.9% and is more pronounced among younger investors and those in blockchain-related professions. Net trading flow analysis reveals no significant inflows or outflows, supporting a distraction-based interpretation. Validation with U.S. retail trading data confirms these results. As cryptocurrencies become mainstream from 2019 to 2022, we observe a diminishing distraction effect, consistent with individuals perceiving them as a conventional asset.